Interlinkages Between Economic Growth and Human Development in India: A State-Level Analysis
Janak Raj, Vrinda Gupta & Aakansha Shrawan, CSEP | 28/12/2023
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Executive Summary
Traditionally, economic growth or income alone
was considered the primary measure of human
development. However, health and education have
gradually emerged as crucial components of human
development, besides income. A significant impetus
for the inclusion of health and education in human
development came in 1990 when the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) introduced the
Human Development Index (HDI). This index comprises income, health, and education as the three
fundamental elements of human development. All
three elements are interconnected and influence
one another. For example, a higher income level
provides individuals, households, or nations with
greater resources that can be allocated to health and
education. Likewise, health and education have multifaceted impact on economic activity by boosting
individual productivity, enhancing capabilities, and
facilitating technology diffusion.
This study explores the relationship between the
non-income aspects of human development, i.e.,
health and education, and economic growth at the
state level. In this context, the study seeks to answer
the following questions: (i) Whether there exists
a long-run relationship between human development (health and education) and economic growth
in India? (ii) Whether economic growth causes
human development and vice-versa? (iii) Does public
expenditure on health and education impact human
development outcomes? (iv) Is there a relationship
between different levels of education and economic
activity?
While India’s overall HDI has steadily improved
over the years, significant disparities exist among
states. For example, during 1990–2019, Bihar, Uttar
Pradesh, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh consistently
registered the lowest HDI values, while Delhi, Kerala,
and Goa showed the highest values. Analysing data
from 1990 to 2019 for 26 Indian states, a bi-directional relationship between economic growth (EG)
and human development (HD) was identified. Both
HD and EG significantly influence each other in the
long run, with a causal relationship observed in both
directions, indicating the need for balanced development. Notably, education was found to contribute
more to EG than health.
To better understand the impact of education on EG,
the study examined the relationship between various education levels (primary, secondary, and tertiary education) and the sectoral value added to the
economy. It revealed that higher levels of education
beyond primary schooling positively influenced different economic sectors. While secondary education
positively affected the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, tertiary education notably impacted the
service sector. The influence of tertiary education on
services was four times greater than that of secondary
education on manufacturing. The effects of secondary and tertiary education on economic activity were
noticeable after a lag of three years. It is noteworthy
that tertiary education enrolment rates surged after
1997. When seen this in conjunction with the role of
tertiary education in driving the value added of the
service sector, it is not surprising that the share of the
service sector in India’s GDP increased sharply from
39.1% in 1997 to 50.1% in 2019.
Regarding the role of public expenditure in human
development, the study found that public expenditure alone did not impact human development outcomes, but total expenditure (public and private) did.
This might be due to low public sector efficiency and
also because public expenditure accounts for only
40–50% of the total expenditure on health and education, with the remaining coming from households
or the private sector. Expenditure on health and
education is non-discretionary, making households
to allocate funds to these critical items by either borrowing or reducing expenditure on other items. An
inverse relationship exists between public and private
expenditure, suggesting that low public spending on
human development is compensated for by high private expenditure. Thus, while public expenditure may
not directly impact human development outcomes,
it remains critical in reducing households’ financial
burden and preventing the impoverishment of poor
households due to catastrophic health expenses.
(Read the full paper here.)