The current conflict between the Myanmar junta and the Brotherhood Alliance started when the three armed ethnic groups, namely Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA) and Tang National Liberation Army (TNLA), launched a coordinated attack against the junta forces on October 27, 2023. The operation’s name is a shortened version of its launching month and date, ‘Operation 1027’. The success of this coordinated attack has drawn support from other rebel forces opposed to the junta regime. The People’s Defence Force and the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Liberation Army have increased their resistance against the junta. 2 Different rebel forces have overrun junta outposts and captured large swathes of land, including several towns and crucial border crossings with India and China. In response to the attacks, the military junta or the State Administration Council (SAC) has attempted to organize ground forces for counterattacks and has launched airstrikes at multiple locations. Some signs indicate that the rebels have the upper hand in the combat. They have gained access to a considerable amount of arms and ammunition due to their quick seizure of several military stations. The military junta's history of brutality has garnered public sympathy in favor of the rebels. They are also stretched out. In addition to fighting the rebels, they have to deal with antijunta groups in the territories they control. Furthermore, there is a clear lack of morale among the military soldiers. Military units have either given up without a fight or put up a weak fight before falling in. Some junta soldiers have been reported to have deserted their positions and made their way to India. Hiring to compensate for these losses is another big challenge for the junta. The current situation in Myanmar has some crucial geopolitical implications. That is why this commentary will briefly take a look at the context of this conflict and Operation 1027 before moving to its main focus, the implications of this conflict for the region and Bangladesh.

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The article was first published in the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.