Earlier this week, Pakistan’s caretaker government led by Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar announced November 1 as the deadline for all undocumented or illegal immigrants in the country, asking them to leave Pakistan or face deportation. Among those at the risk include 1.73 million Afghans.

Awaaz South Asia explains the reasons behind Pakistan’s decision and how it could further complicate the relationship between the two South Asian countries.

‘Leave or face deportation’

On October 3, Pakistan’s caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti announced in Islamabad that a November 1 deadline had been set for the “illegal immigrants” to leave the country or face deportation.

“We have given them a deadline of November 1 to willingly return to their countries and if they don’t, all law enforcement agencies of the state and provinces will deport them,” Bugti said, adding that starting from November 1, people would not be able to enter the country without a passport or visa.

While Bugti didn’t mention Afghanistan, it was clear that the decision was aimed at hundreds of Afghans in Pakistan.

A day before the announcement, the state-run wire service Associated Press of Pakistan had reported that 1.1 million foreigners living illegally in Pakistan would be evicted “because of their involvement in funding, facilitating terrorists and other illegal activities”.

What was the trigger?

A wave of suicide bombings in Pakistan over the last 20 months has created an unstable security environment. The situation is reminiscent of the dark days from 2007 to 2014, when the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), then newly formed, unleashed a relentless terror campaign in Pakistan. This time too, it has claimed responsibility for many of the attacks.

During his press conference on October 3, the Interior Minister blamed Afghan nationals for their involvement in suicide attacks in the country. Of the 24 suicide attacks this year, “Fourteen bombings were carried out by Afghan nationals,” Bugti said.

He alleged that a religious decree by Afghan Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada warning Taliban members against carrying out attacks abroad was not being obeyed.

Executive Director of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies Imtiaz Gul told Awaaz South Asia that Pakistan had taken the decision due to its frustration with the continuing terrorist attacks carried out by the TTP, which he said was operating from Afghanistan.

“That is what has forced Pakistan now to go for measures, which will automatically put pressure on the Afghan Taliban and eventually they may take some conclusive action against the TTP,” he said, adding that the Afghan Taliban did not want to go after the TTP publicly because it had been partners in the war against the US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan.

Gul said the campaign was directed at the undocumented Afghans living in Pakistan and not refugees who had proof of status.

“The target is the illegally staying people who are living without visas, passports. The majority of (undocumented Afghans) came post August 2021 when the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan,” he said. “It raises a basic question: Shouldn’t a state regulate the presence, entry and exit of all the alien strangers who are getting into the country?”

Border dispute

The tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not new and is part of the “love-hate relationship” between the two countries, says Gul

One of the foundational issues in this relationship is that Afghanistan does not accept the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Even though the Taliban owe its creation to Pakistan, the regime in Kabul has made clear its rejection of the border.

In June this year, Taliban administration’s Defence Minister Maulvi Muhammad Yaqub Mujahid, during an interview with the Kabul-based TOLO news, referred to the border as a “line”. “It means to me a line, the Durand Line,” he told TOLO news.

The Durand Line, the 2,670-km border demarcated by the British in 1880, cut through the Pashtun tribal areas. It divided villages, families and land between the British colonial rulers and the Afghan king.

In the 20th century, Pashtun leaders described the Durand Line as the “line of hatred”, calling it a ploy to keep them divided so that the British could control them.

With Afghans and Pakistani Pashtun crossing back and forth through this line, Pakistan began fencing the border. In April 2023, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Ahmed Sharif said 98 per cent of the fencing of the Durand Line had been completed. In mid-September, officials of Afghanistan and Pakistan traded blame over the closure of Torkham border crossing, following an exchange of fire between the security personnel of the two countries. It reopened nine days later.

History of migration

Afghanistan has a long history of migration, stretching back to the Silk Road days. In 1978, a communist faction came to power after a coup and came up with reforms which were not acceptable to people. The next year, when the Soviet Union sent its troops to Afghanistan to help the struggling government, the occupation triggered the first mass displacement of around 3.5 million people to Pakistan.

The displacement continued in 1989 when the Soviet military withdrew from Afghanistan. Hundreds of Afghans supporting the Soviet Union were forced to leave.

Another migration took place when the civil war in the country ended and the Taliban took over in 1994. In 2002, when the Taliban rule ended, many Afghans fled.

Over 6,00,000 Afghans have migrated to Pakistan since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021.

The Ministry of States and Frontier Regions of Pakistan, which deals with the Afghan refugees, in its 2022-2023 report says, “As a consequence of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, factional fighting in the post-1992 era, drought in 1999-2000 and post 9/11, 2001, over 4.4 million recorded Afghans sought refuge in Pakistan.”

It noted that there are approximately 2.9 million Afghan nationals living in Pakistan. Of them, 1.3 million have Proof of Registration cards, over 8,00,000 have Afghan Citizen Cards and 7,00,000 Afghans are living in the country without any documents.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) August update, Pakistan continues to be one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting countries, providing safety to some 1.3 million registered refugees, forced to flee their countries, 99 percent of whom are Afghans.

Afghanistan’s response

Pakistan’s expulsion plan has evoked criticism not only from the Taliban government in Afghanistan, but also from several right groups.

A day after Pakistan’s announcement, Taliban’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid termed the decision “unacceptable”.

“The Pakistani side should reconsider its plan. Afghan refugees are not involved in Pakistan’s security problems. As long as they leave Pakistan voluntarily, that country should tolerate them,” Mujahid wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

“Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, in a meeting with his Pakistan counterpart on the side-lines of the third Trans-Himalaya Forum for International Cooperation in China’s autonomous region, reiterated that mishandling Afghan refugees could adversely affect the bilateral relations and the economic scenarios of both countries,” deputy spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry Hafiz Zia Ahmad posted on X.

Afghan’s Defence Minister Maulvi Muhammad Yaqub Mujahid, meanwhile, has sought support from religious and political leaders in Pakistan.

The shot in the arm for the Taliban Afghanistan came from several rights groups, which criticized the Pakistan decision.

The UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration have appealed to Pakistan to continue its protection of all vulnerable Afghans who have sought safety in the country and could be at an imminent risk if forced to return. Even Amnesty International has asked Pakistan to halt the plan.

The Pakistan government has, however, defended its decision.

“No country allows illegal people to live in their country whether it is Europe, whether it is countries in Asia, in our neighbourhood,” Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani told Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV. “So, accordingly, this is in line with the international practice that we have taken this decision.”

Fresh strain on AfPak ties

In New Delhi, former Consultant at the National Security Council Secretariat Sarral Sharma told Awaaz South Asia that Islamabad’s sudden announcement was “creating a serious human rights crisis in the region.”

“Not only the undocumented refugees, but also the documented Afghans in Pakistan might encounter heightened discrimination and arbitrary arrests in the coming months. The decision seems to be a pressure tactic by Pakistan to compel the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to comply or face the consequences,” Sharma said.

He said the decision was likely to further strain the already tense relations between the two countries and “could escalate tensions or violent skirmishes in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas.”

 “For Islamabad, the optimism that followed the Taliban’s return in Kabul in August 2021 has largely faded and serious challenges to its strategic depth in Afghanistan have emerged,” he said.

“Since August 2021, there have been clear signs of a rift between the two nations despite the historical ties between the Taliban and the Pakistani state,” he further said.

He said “contentious issues such as the cross-border terror attacks, the unresolved Durand Line dispute and now the forced expulsion of the Afghan refugees from Pakistan have increased the tensions between the two countries.”

Gul, meanwhile, said, “This will create many negative stories, but may not escalate into a conflict.”