How BJP Flattened Congress in Hindi heartland
JYOTI MALHOTRA/ Asia Sentinel | 04/12/2023
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Just one name matters today in India, the day after
results of four state elections in the heart of the country revealed the
vice-like grip of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over its voters –
Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The BJP seems to have destroyed its main opposition,
the once-grand Congress party, in these elections. Or, perhaps, the Congress
destroyed itself, as voters traded historical memory, dynastic loyalty, and a
lack of imagination in the current leadership for the ambitious and
aspirational politics espoused by Modi.
If you were living in a Himalayan cave in India these
past 10 years and had somehow missed the steep decline of the Congress – save
for an occasional victory burst, like the one in Telangana state this time or
in Karnataka less than six months ago – you might have been startled by the
absence of a plan, leave alone strategy, that the Congress should have plotted
on a war-like footing to take on the BJP election juggernaut.
Instead, there was hubris, as if voters should have no
alternative but to vote for the ideologically pure and secular Congress party.
We are the upholders of the idea of the republic, the Congress proclaimed,
sneering at the street-side aggression demonstrated by BJP workers, activists,
and leaders.
Except, as most politicians know, the one thing voters
detest is to be taken for granted. And so they punished the Congress, instead
of punishing the ideologically right-wing BJP. It was a pushover, anyway. The
citadel crumbled so quickly. In the end, the main Congress gods, Rahul and
Priyanka Gandhi, not just had feet of clay, they were putty in the hands of
Narendra Modi.
And so Modi’s party decimated the Congress party in
Sunday’s elections, turning the country saffron again. In Rajasthan and
Chhatisgarh, which the Congress had ruled for the last 5 years, the BJP won
convincingly – in Rajasthan it defeated the Congress, 115-70, and in
Chhatisgarh, it won 56-34. In Madhya Pradesh the BJP underlined its
determination to stay on for another five years, winning 165-64 seats. Results
of the poll in Mizoram will come in on Monday, in deference to the Sabbath
sensitivities of the predominantly Christian state in the North-East
It was Telangana, which clearly votes differently than
the Hindi-speaking North, that saved the day for the Congress. The party
defeated the outgoing Bharath Rashtriya Samiti (BRS), 64-40. No doubt the
Congress will hang on to this last straw, even though the camel’s back has been
long broken.
There’s a third lesson from this provincial election –
which is, that India’s female voter has a mind of her own and will not be
dictated to by the family patriarch, whether husband or brother or father or
father-in-law. Election trackers demonstrated that women had voted for the BJP
in large numbers.
The BJP has long known and understood the importance
of the silent female vote. Over the past few elections across the country,
Prime Minister Modi has made it a point to focus on the poor woman who bears
the brunt of looking after the family – for example, promoting the usage of gas
cylinders over firewood, aimed at making cooking far simpler. Modi also
understood that when you aim to change the mind of the woman in the house, she
influences political and economic change from within.
Special schemes to promote women’s education and
employment have been an important focus of the welfarism that lies at the heart
of the BJP’s political cut and thrust. This time was no different. Beyond
continued subsidies for rice and wheat for those beneath the poverty line which
demonstrates the existence of both hunger and malnutrition beyond the
headlights of the big cities, in this election welfare schemes were tailored
for women.
In Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP has been in power
since 2005 (save for a year-long interregnum in 2018-19 when it lost power to
the Congress, but won it back when Congress rebels turned coat and moved en
masse to the BJP), a scheme for young women called “Mukhyamantri Ladli Behna
Yojana” or “Chief Minister’s Favorite Sister Scheme” involved the transfer of
Rs1250 ($15.50) per month to women between 21-60, subject to conditions like
total family income being less $300 per year.
The scheme was
a huge hit. As many as 13 million women were enrolled within a few months of it
being launched in June this year. Pollsters data showed that 50 percent of
women voters had cast their vote in favor of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh this
time around – in comparison, the Congress got 10 percent fewer women voters.
Significantly, women voters outnumbered male voters by as much as 6 percent.
But the question why the BJP wins again and again and
again — and is likely to win again when general elections are held in the
middle of 2024 – was answered decisively this election. Simply put, the BJP is
far hungrier for power than the well-mannered Congress. It wants to rule India.
If it wins again in 2024, as it is likely to do if Sunday’s results are
anything to go by, and Modi becomes prime minister again, then he will match
the unprecedented consecutive third-time victory record created by India’s first
prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.
Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi, and now Narendra
Modi – three prime ministers who will be remembered because they shaped India
in their image. The big difference between Modi and his predecessors is, of
course, that he comes from humble origins, while both Nehru and Indira once
stood at the forefront of India’s social, cultural, and political elite groups.
For the time being, at least, it seems Modi and the
BJP are here to stay. The rest of the world may sneer at his party’s right-wing
politics which invisibilizes the Muslim community, but India clearly admires
the ambition and determination that is part of his political instinct.
"Modi hai to mumkin hai," goes a favorite
BJP slogan, meaning, "Things are possible when Modi is around." Or
simply, things go better with Modi. Certainly, India would largely agree with
that sentiment today.
Jyoti Malhotra is Founder-Editor of #AwaazSouthAsia and a regular correspondent for Asia Sentinel. Follow her on Twitter @jomalhotra
(This article was first published in Asia Sentinel, India, Hong Kong)
DN
2023-12-04 18:09:55
Very clearly and well written article - makes complex politics easy to understand! Thank you AwaazSouthAsia.
DN
2023-12-30 21:31:38
Very clearly and well written article - makes complex politics easy to understand! Thank you AwaazSouthAsia.
DN
2023-12-30 21:48:41
Very clearly and well written article - makes complex politics easy to understand! Thank you AwaazSouthAsia.