Iran’s decision to violate the territorial integrity of Pakistan is not only ill-timed, but a poor call at multiple levels. It garnered no military gains but has ended up creating a major and avoidable crisis. Consider.

Just a day before Iran hit an alleged Jaish al-Adl compound in Panjgur, a majority of Pakistanis were half-Iranians. Let me explain. Because of the tragedy unfolding in Gaza, the horizontal escalation by Iran-linked groups — Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon — in support of Hamas and Iran’s position on Palestinian rights had won the hearts of Pakistanis. 

Iran squandered that capital overnight.

At a time when the Muslim-majority states, as also other conscientious states in the world and social groups are focused on the atrocity crimes committed by Israel in its genocidal war, everyone supporting Palestinians must close ranks. From that perspective, Iran’s irresponsible act of aggression against Pakistan could not have been a bigger fiasco.

The second aspect is bilateral. Iran and Pakistan have had problems with violent non-state actors in Balochistan/Sistan-Baluchistan for many years. There have been attacks on Iran’s security forces by Sunni groups asking for equal rights and agitating persecution by Iran of its Sunni minority. Pakistan has, in its current iteration, faced a slow-burning terror campaign by Baloch terrorist groups since 2006. These groups cross over from Iran and Southern Afghanistan into Pakistan and perpetrate violence in Balochistan.

Over the years and because of simmering tensions, Pakistan and Iran have developed communication channels and border cooperation mechanisms to deal with the problem. There are existing counterterrorism mechanisms to deal with this bilateral problem. Under those arrangements, if Iran had intel on the presence of Jaish al-Adl elements in Balochistan, it should have informed Pakistan to take care of it. Instead, it chose to take unilateral, kinetic action.

If Iran calculated that Pakistan would respond then it has played a dangerous hand and wants to escalate. For its part, Pakistan’s hand has been forced into responding. Pakistan turned up the heat by taking certain diplomatic measures. But in the absence of any remorse from Iran’s side, it also felt the imperative to give a targeted, kinetic response. 

In doing so, Iran obviously miscalculated Pakistan’s response. Did it convince itself that Pakistan would not respond? If so, then Tehran obviously thought that its strategic objectives were holier than Pakistan’s. That’s magic, not policy.

If it calculated that Pakistan would respond then it has played a dangerous hand and wants to escalate. For its part, Pakistan’s hand has been forced into responding. Pakistan turned up the heat by taking certain diplomatic measures. But in the absence of any remorse from Iran’s side, it also felt the imperative to give a targeted, kinetic response. Pakistan has known of the presence of Baloch terror groups on Iranian soil. It decided to hit one of their bases in Saravan in Iranian Baluchistan. 

Just a day before, Pakistan’s and Iran’s navies had held a daylong joint naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report in Tehran Times “Young officers and cadets from both Iranian and Pakistani navies participated [in the exercise].” Last year in June, during meetings in Islamabad, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani engaged with Pakistan’s Chief of Naval Staff, Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi and Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar. The Iranian delegation received briefings on Pakistan Navy's efforts in ensuring maritime security and discussed plans for bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

Hours before Iran’s transgression, Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met in Davos to discuss issues of bilateral cooperation. If Minister Amir-Abdollahian knew Iran was prepping for a strike while he was exchanging pleasantries with PM Kakar, then that makes Iran’s action even more perfidious.

One of the surprises about Iran's unfortunate aggression is that Tehran is already on razor’s edge because of the conflict in Occupied Palestine and horizontal escalation by Hezbollah and Houthis, both Iran’s regional proxies. For it to take an action that could open a hostile front in the east with Pakistan makes no logical, strategic sense.

The first round over, the onus for climbing up the escalation ladder is now with Iran. While one hopes that it won’t come to that, Pakistan has to remain vigilant. The second round, if that happens, will lack the element of surprise, at least to the degree of the first attack. 

Pakistan’s response has been measured, proportional and firm. Iran has already conceded that the people killed in Pakistan’s strikes in Saravan were foreign nationals. Pakistan does not wish to escalate. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, “Pakistan fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The sole objective of today’s act was in pursuit of Pakistan’s own security and national interest which is paramount and cannot be compromised.”

Another important aspect of Pakistan’s strike is signalling to India. India has, in the past, aggressed against Pakistan. It is again going into an election and the Hindutva, right wing BJP government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is very likely to manufacture a crisis for domestic political gains. This incident with Iran, therefore, has also to be seen in the context of Pakistan’s deterrence against India.

The first round over, the onus for climbing up the escalation ladder is now with Iran. While one hopes that it won’t come to that, Pakistan has to remain vigilant. The second round, if that happens, will lack the element of surprise, at least to the degree of the first attack. Pakistan would need to ready its ground air defences, as also its aerial platforms, to intercept Iranian missiles or any other platform they choose to employ. Technically speaking, Iran will have to inflict more pain if it wants to climb up the ladder. Depending on what targets they engage, Pakistan will have to inflict greater pain since that is the essence of escalation dominance. 

On the downside, multiple iterations of escalatory actions also lead to a spiral. That is not in the interest of either Pakistan or Iran. Iran cannot afford to get distracted while there are fears of vertical escalation in the Middle East; Pakistan would rather keep its eye on the east.

It would be best for diplomacy to take over from here.